In-Com-Plete · Trade Retrospective Series

The John Elway Trade

May 2, 1983 — A chain reaction spanning 13 years

Denver Broncos Receive

John Elway (QB)

All-Time Great · AV 206

Selected 1st overall by Baltimore. Refused to play for the Colts.
5 Super Bowl appearances, 2 championships. HOF 2004.

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Baltimore Colts Receive

Chris Hinton (OT) Core Franchise · AV 57
Mark Herrmann (QB) Journeyman · AV 2
1984 1st Rd Pick → Ron Solt (OG) Reliable Starter · AV 31

What Baltimore did with their assets

Chris Hinton

Chris Hinton (OT) · AV 57

7 seasons with Colts (1983–89)

Six Pro Bowls. The franchise cornerstone Baltimore needed most — an elite offensive tackle acquired directly in the deal. The most immediate and tangible asset in the return package.

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1990: Colts trade Hinton + Rison to Atlanta

Package sent to ATL:

· Chris Hinton
· Andre Rison (WR)
· 1990 5th Rd pick
· 1991 1st Rd pick (conditional)

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1990 4th Rd
Stacey Simmons (WR)

AV 0 — Dead end

Conditional 1st Rd
(Condition not met)

Pick never conveyed

1990 1st Rd → Jeff George (QB) · AV 22

Selected 1st overall — Colts used ATL's pick

Enormous arm talent that never translated into sustained winning. Traded to Atlanta in 1994, setting off the final leg of the chain.

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1994: Colts trade Jeff George to Atlanta

ATL sends back two picks:

· 1994 1st Rd pick
· 1994 3rd Rd pick

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1994 3rd Rd
→ traded to LA Rams

Part of package for '96 1st Rd

1994 1st Rd
Trev Alberts (LB)

AV 4 — Injuries ended career

1996 1st Rd → Marvin Harrison (WR) · AV 160

Colts used '94 Rams pick to land the '96 1st Rd

First-ballot Hall of Famer. 8× Pro Bowl. 1,102 career receptions. The final destination of a 13-year chain that began with John Elway refusing to take the field in Baltimore.
Inner-Circle Legend

Hinton branch total The longest and most valuable branch. Hinton himself was elite. His trade to Atlanta eventually threaded through Jeff George and two rounds of draft capital to produce a Hall of Fame wide receiver. AV value generated: ~239 (Hinton 57 + George 22 + Harrison 160).

Mark Herrmann

Mark Herrmann (QB) · AV 2

Brief stint with Colts

Career backup who served as a bridge option. Quickly moved on to San Diego, returning only a late-round pick.

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Traded to San Diego Chargers

SD returns a single future draft pick.

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1986 10th Rd → Pete Anderson (OL)

AV 0 — Dead end

Herrmann branch total The shortest branch in the tree. A 10th-round pick returned zero NFL value. The Herrmann chain was exhausted within three years of the original trade. AV value generated: ~2.

Ron Solt (1984 1st Rd)

Ron Solt (OG) · AV 31

4 seasons with Colts (1984–87)

A reliable, league-average starter for four years — exactly what a mid-first-round pick should deliver. Traded to Philadelphia Eagles in 1988.

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Traded to Philadelphia Eagles

PHI returns two future picks.

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1989 1st Rd
Andre Rison (WR)

AV 7 as a Colt — quickly packaged into the Hinton/ATL deal.
Full career AV: 67 — but none of it for Indy.

1990 4th Rd
Rick Cunningham (OT)

AV 0 — Dead end

Solt branch total Solt delivered real value, but Philadelphia's return picks were minimal. Rison's career AV of 67 accrued entirely elsewhere — his big years came in Atlanta and Green Bay. AV value generated for Indianapolis: ~31.

Denver Broncos

John Elway (QB) 206

Total AV received 206

Baltimore / Indianapolis Colts

Chris Hinton (OT) 57

Mark Herrmann (QB) 2

Ron Solt via 1984 1st Rd 31

Jeff George via Hinton chain 22

Marvin Harrison via George chain 160

Total AV generated (full chain) 272

Immediate AV: Denver +116 · Full chain (13 yrs): Baltimore +66 · Time is the variable

The Legacy

One trade on May 2, 1983 set off a 13-year chain reaction across six franchises. Denver won immediately and completely — John Elway delivered five Super Bowl appearances and two championships. But the long tail of Baltimore's assets, particularly through Chris Hinton and Jeff George, eventually led the Colts to the 19th pick of the 1996 draft: Marvin Harrison. A first-ballot Hall of Famer born from the wreckage of a trade nobody in Baltimore wanted to make. Measure it at five years and Denver wins in a landslide. Measure it at thirteen and the ledger is surprisingly close.

Approximate Value (AV) Reference Scale

Metric & career scores via Pro Football Reference · Tier labels adapted for editorial use

AV Range	Tier	Context
0–9	The Journeyman	Rotational player or starter for ~2 seasons. Pete Anderson, Trev Alberts.
10–39	The Reliable Starter	League-average starter for 5–6 years. Ron Solt (31) lives here.
40–79	The Core Franchise Player	High-level starter, 7–9 years, 1–2 Pro Bowls. Chris Hinton (57).
80–99	Hall of Very Good	Decade-long pillar. HOF conversation begins.
100–129	The HOF Median	Average score for a modern-era Hall of Fame inductee.
130–179	Inner-Circle Legend	First-ballot territory. Marvin Harrison (160). Barry Sanders (149).
180–219	All-Time Great	~16 players in history. John Elway (206). Dan Marino (216).
250+	Statistical Anomaly	20-year elite careers only. Jerry Rice (251). Tom Brady (326).