In-Com-Plete · Trade Retrospective Series
The Russell Wilson Trade
March 16, 2022 — The trade that rebuilt one franchise and broke another
Denver Broncos Receive
-
Russell Wilson (QB)
Inner-Circle Legend · wAV 140
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2022 4th Rd (116th overall) → Eyioma Uwazurike (DL)
Minimal · wAV ~2
Wilson: 9× Pro Bowl, Super Bowl champion, wAV 140 (18th all-time since 1960).
Denver's first franchise QB since Peyton Manning. Or so they hoped.
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Seattle Seahawks Receive
- Drew Lock (QB)Journeyman · wAV ~10
- Noah Fant (TE)Solid Starter · wAV ~22
- Shelby Harris (DL)Solid Starter · wAV ~28
- 2022 1st Rd (9th overall)→ Charles Cross (OT)
- 2022 2nd Rd (40th overall)→ Boye Mafe (LB)
- 2022 5th Rd (145th overall)→ Tyreke Smith (LB)
- 2023 1st Rd (5th overall)→ Devon Witherspoon (CB)
- 2023 2nd Rd (37th overall)→ Derick Hall (EDGE)
What each team got from their assets
Denver's return
Russell Wilson (QB) · wAV 16 in Denver
2 seasons · 2022–2023 · Record: 11–19
One of the most catastrophic misfits between player and organization in modern NFL history. The 2022 season under Nathaniel Hackett — who was fired after 15 games — produced the league's worst scoring offense at 16.9 points per game. Wilson was sacked more than any other QB that year. The 2023 season under Sean Payton showed modest statistical improvement but the offense remained stagnant. Wilson was benched two games before the end of the season — a deliberately financial move to avoid triggering a $37M injury guarantee.
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Dead Cap Consequence
Wilson was released in March 2024. Denver absorbed $85M in dead cap money — $50M in 2024 and $35.4M carried into 2025. The most expensive two-year failure at quarterback in NFL history.
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Wilson signs with Pittsburgh Steelers · 2024
Post-Denver · 1 season
Earned his 10th Pro Bowl selection with Pittsburgh. Showed he still had something left in the tank. Meanwhile Denver, in Wilson's absence, drafted Bo Nix and made the playoffs in 2024 — a first-round loss to the Bills, but a meaningful step forward.
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Eyioma Uwazurike (2022 4th Rd) · wAV ~2
Suspended 2023 season · minimal NFL impact
Denver's total return
Wilson generated roughly 16 AV across two seasons in Denver — equivalent to a single above-average season from a journeyman starter. The franchise paid $242.6M guaranteed for that output, absorbed $85M in dead money after releasing him, and sacrificed two first-round picks that became franchise cornerstones in Seattle.
Functional AV received in Denver: ~18
Seattle's return
Charles Cross (OT) · wAV ~35 and rising
2022 1st Rd (9th overall) · 3 seasons and counting
The immediate foundational piece. Started all 17 games as a rookie and has anchored the left tackle position ever since. Signed a 4-year, $104.4M extension in January 2026. Already one of the better left tackles in the NFC and still on his first major deal.
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Devon Witherspoon (CB) · wAV ~32 and rising
2023 1st Rd (5th overall) · 2 seasons and counting
Denver's 11-19 record under Wilson meant the 2023 first-rounder landed 5th overall — a windfall. Witherspoon became a Pro Bowler in his rookie year, has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons, and is already regarded as one of the best young corners in football. A cornerstone of Seattle's secondary for years to come. Super Bowl champion in Super Bowl LX (2025 season).
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Boye Mafe (LB) · wAV ~22
2022 2nd Rd (40th overall) · 3 seasons with Seattle
Led the team in sacks (9.0) in 2023. A high-motor edge rusher who became a key piece of Seattle's pass-rush. Signed with Cincinnati as a free agent in 2026 after contributing to the Super Bowl run.
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Derick Hall (EDGE) · wAV ~14
2023 2nd Rd (37th overall) · 2 seasons
Developmental edge rusher. Part of a deep defensive line rotation under coordinator Aden Durde.
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Noah Fant (TE) · wAV ~22
Solid starter for Seattle. 5th-year option exercised. Reliable underneath target.
Shelby Harris (DL) · wAV ~28
2 productive seasons. Two sacks, 4 PDs in 2022 before becoming a free agent.
Tyreke Smith (5th Rd) · wAV ~2
Practice squad / minimal impact
Drew Lock (QB) · wAV ~10
Backup role · re-signed as Geno Smith's backup
Seattle's total return
Two probable franchise cornerstones (Cross, Witherspoon), a genuine pass rusher (Mafe), two solid veterans (Fant, Harris), and enough depth to fill out a roster. The picks getting better as Denver got worse was an added bonus Seattle couldn't have scripted. The haul directly contributed to a Super Bowl championship.
AV generated for Seattle (to date): ~165+ and still accruing
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson (2 seasons)
~16
Eyioma Uwazurike (4th Rd)
~2
Dead cap absorbed
$85M
Total wAV received
~18
Seattle Seahawks
Charles Cross (2022 1st Rd)
~35
Devon Witherspoon (2023 1st Rd)
~32
Boye Mafe (2022 2nd Rd)
~22
Derick Hall (2023 2nd Rd)
~14
Noah Fant + Shelby Harris
~50
Drew Lock + Tyreke Smith
~12
Total wAV generated (to date)
~165+
AV advantage: Seattle +147 and growing · All figures approximate — Seattle's core players are still in their primes
The Legacy
This is the cautionary tale of the series. Denver didn't just lose the trade — they lost it in every direction simultaneously. They sacrificed two first-round picks that became franchise cornerstones, three starters who contributed meaningfully in Seattle, and paid $242.6M for a quarterback who produced 11 wins in two years. The 2023 first-rounder becoming the 5th pick overall — because Denver went 5-12 Wilson's first year — was a cruelty the Seahawks couldn't have planned. What makes this trade uniquely painful isn't just that Wilson underperformed. It's that the player they traded him for, the picks they surrendered, and the dead money they absorbed all converged into a half-decade of irrelevance. Meanwhile, the Seahawks used Denver's misery as the foundation for a Super Bowl roster. One of the most one-sided trades in modern NFL history, and it isn't close.
Approximate Value (wAV) Reference Scale
Metric & career scores via
Pro Football Reference · Tier labels adapted for editorial use · Active player AV figures are career-to-date and still accruing
| wAV Range | Tier | Context |
|---|
| 0–9 | The Journeyman | Rotational player or starter for ~2 seasons. |
| 10–39 | The Reliable Starter | League-average starter for 5–6 years. Charles Cross (still accruing). |
| 40–79 | The Core Franchise Player | High-level starter, 7–9 years, 1–2 Pro Bowls. |
| 80–99 | Hall of Very Good | Decade-long pillar. HOF conversation begins. |
| 100–129 | The HOF Median | Average score for a modern-era Hall of Fame inductee. |
| 130+ | Inner-Circle Legend | First-ballot territory. Russell Wilson's full career wAV: 140 (18th all-time since 1960). |
| 200+ | All-Time Great | ~16 players in history. John Elway (206). Dan Marino (216). |
| 250+ | Statistical Anomaly | 20-year elite careers only. Jerry Rice (251). Tom Brady (326). |